Monday, April 4, 2016

Planning & a System for making Decisions


Best/Worst Analysis  
B/WA Formula
 Notes taken from the book by Ben Carson,
 TAKE THE RISK: Learning to Identify, Choose, and Live with Acceptable Risk.
I would summarize one of the most important insights I took from the book as “How to make decisions without leaving God out of the equation!
Risk Analysis Process

You can print this and use as a template for decision making.

Questions to ask when making a decision:
What is the best thing that can happen if I do this?
What is the worst thing that can happen if I do this?
What is the best thing that can happen if I don’t do it?
What is the worst thing that can happen if I don’t do it?

________________________________

The rest of this post are My comments on his 4 questions.

Ask these questions in light of the following:
Outcomes may change over time because of changing conditions!
Who?
What?
Where?
When?
How?
Why?
Answering these familiar queries in the context of the four basic Best/Worst Analysis questions will sharpen the focus and refine the accuracy of any risk analysis process
WHERE
Where are you going? (Your goals)
Where are you now? (Your skills, your abilities, your thinking, and your attitudes)
Where will you start? (Your preparation)
WHEN
Often the timing of a Best/Worst Analysis affects our conclusion.
Always do a B/WA again whenever you think something has changed significantly: a year later, at a different point in life, or maybe after pondering some of these who, what, when,  how, and why considerations. Times change. So do circumstances. Sometimes those changes will affect your Best/Worst Analysis, modifying your thinking-maybe even reversing your decision.
HOW
You don’t have to address who, what, where, when, how, and why in any particular order.  They may need to be viewed simultaneously because they sometimes complement each other or need to be combined.
Sometimes answering one of the (how or?) conclusions may change your risk-analysis equation entirely.
WHY
It is impossible to do an effective B/WA without considering why. You need to examine, and often re examine, your reasoning in light of your motives, which involve your personal values.  Your values must be weighed carefully against you’re analyses and conclusions. 
Some Truths About RISK
1.                  Everything is Risky
2.                  The more we know, the more we worry.
3.                  A Lot of Risks Aren’t Worth the Worry.
4.                  We Can’t Eliminate All Risk
5.                  Minimizing Risk Is Often the Best We Can Do.
6.                  Each of Us Has to Decide What the Acceptable Risks Are
7.                  Not All Risks Are Bad
8.                  We Are All Going to Die of Something Eventually
 
Risk Number One-Thinking in New Ways
Risk Number Two-Weighing the Alternatives
Risk Number Three-Making Your Own Decision
Even when the Best/Worse Analysis doesn’t result in a particularly positive outcome, you are unlikely to have a worse outcome because you did the analysis, and what a B/WA does guarantee is that you consider the various possibilities in a reasonable, logical manner before making any uncertain or risky decision. That has to improve the odds that you come up with a happy solution-or at least with a reasonable and defensible course of action that will minimize the risk of regrets.
Need to weigh risks in light of my beliefs and my values. My obligations to others should be greater than any obligations to myself.
Since I believe God’s guidance and provision has brought me to this point, I should ask Him to open the doors He wants me to walk through and to give me wisdom in how to proceed.
Importance of using my talents and not allow minor interferences to derail my mission if life.
Creativity requires risk, so does exploration and innovation. Anyone who thinks outside the box is taking a risk.
In doing this risk analysis, one needs to consider the implications of any decision, not just for one’s self but for other people. How will my decision impact others?
Taking Us Out of the Middle
Once we manage to remove our egos from the equation, many of the most commonplace and unsettling personal risks we face in life become a lot less personal and no longer seem to be much of a risk after all.  That discovery frees us up to better concentrate on dealing with the real risks presented by truly important issues.
Something to pray about!

Sunday, March 27, 2016

A few Pansy pictures: Just across the street from Johnson Controls...50+ years ago. Dassows Pansy farm.







 Not done with this posting or page yet. 
If you have found this...come back in a few days. 


2.5 acres of pansies. Kohl's and Sentry purchased all of them. 2 Quart baskets. Early May to beginning of June. 

Seeded in field in mid July...covered with marsh hay usually around Thanksgiving Day...just after ground froze...uncovered in April. 

Large field pictures were taken in late fall. 

Individual pansy plant pictures...taken in spring.

                                                       Field in fall. Probably Sept or Oct. 
                                                       All the flowers had to be picked off before covering
                                                       with marsh hay in November. 


                                                               Same field in Spring





These pictures taken in spring of following year...Mid -late May